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IHME updates state-by-state COVID-19 predictions

Updated interactive charts of the Chris Murray Model show predicted outcomes with and without masks

The charts are known as the Chris Murray Model after one of the principal IHME researchers, Dr. Chris Murray. They have been updated to predict outcomes through Nov 1. For perspective, approximately 39,000 people died in motor vehicle crashes  last year which is about average. A typical flu season can cost between 20K-60K lives, with the 2017-2018 season representing a peak estimate of 80K lives lost. As of today July 15, coronavirus has claimed 134,500 lives.

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The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent population health research center at UW Medicine, part of the University of Washington, that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME makes this information freely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions about how to allocate resources to best improve population health.

Their charts were originally designed to model the arc and peak for cases and hospital resources, demonstrating the predicted variation of timing for each state as well as the projected timing until states will see deaths level off, assuming mitigation continues.

This is useful for helping to understand how life and work may be disrupted regionally in different ways and on a different timeline. Of course state borders are porous and states are interconnected in many ways. However these charts may help visualize the rolling nature of what is to come.

I realize these numbers are people’s lives and each life is a concentric circle of other affected lives. I offer the link to this resource, for whatever planning and strategizing it may help with, if any. I know everyone is looking for ways to do the best for their families, businesses, partners, and workers. This model for regional differences may help a little to do that. It is one model being referenced by decision makers throughout the country to varying degrees. The source is long-standing and reputable, and has been cited by federal and state authorities. But like anything coronavrius-related there is not universal consensus on the extent to which this modeling represents what will happen on the ground. So far it’s been one of the primary models incorporated into US plans and forecasts and so far it has been accurate. It has also unfortunately predicted ever increasing lives lost as the difficult practices to slow transmission have proven to be unsustainable, and in some case disregarded.

The Chris Murray model was recently updated to reflect changes in mandates and to consider the preventative potential of masks, which varies regionally. Each state is independently modeled, as is each country.

Best to all. Here are some examples below; here is the link to all the charts.

Here is the link to all the charts.


See also:

Interactive coronavirus map (international and US) released by Johns Hopkins

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