The charts are known as the Chris Murray Model after one of the principal IHME researchers, Dr. Chris Murray. They have been updated to reflect a predicted doubling of lives lost by Aug. 1.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent population health research center at UW Medicine, part of the University of Washington, that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME makes this information freely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions about how to allocate resources to best improve population health.
Their charts model the arc and peak for cases and hospital resources) demonstrating the predicted variation of timing for each state as well as the projected timing until states will see deaths level off, assuming mitigation continues.
This is grim, but it is also useful for helping to understand how life and work may be disrupted regionally in different ways and on a different timeline. Of course state borders are porous and states are interconnected in many ways. However these charts may help visualize the rolling nature of what is to come.
For example, Connecticut is predicted to have a sharp, relatively short peak, quite soon, while Virginia is predicted to see it’s peak in 47 days and on a flatter longer, arc.
I realize these numbers are people’s lives and each life is a concentric circle of other affected lives. I offer the link to this resource, for whatever planning and strategizing it may help with, if any. I know everyone is looking for ways to do the best for their families, businesses, partners, and workers. This model for regional differences may help a little to do that and it is certainly on of the things being referenced by decision makers throughout the country to varying degrees. The source is long-standing and reputable, and has been cited by federal and state authorities. But like anything coronavrius-realted there is not universal consensus on the extent to which this modeling represents what will happen on the ground. So far it’s been one of the primary models incorporated into US plans and forecasts .
The Chris Murray model was recently updated to reflect changes in social distancing and other strategies. This has resulted in increased forecast of lives lost.Each state is independently modeled, as is each country.
Best to all. Here are some examples below; here is the link to all the charts.
Here is the link to all the charts.